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Unemployment is still a nightmare. Just under the carpet. While the official number of unemployed is at a record low of 3.9%, hidden unemployment is eating up the market unnoticed. And then, the official figure was nailed to the ground by mobilization (300,000 able-bodied citizens) and mass emigration (there are still no normal estimates, the consensus figure is around 1 million people). According to this indicator, a record was set for 8 years – 13% or 4.6 million Russians. That is, people are officially employed, but do not go to work, remaining either idle or on vacation at their own expense. Worst of all is the auto industry, which collapsed by 79% due to the departure of Western companies. But even food manufacturers sent every fifth employee on downtime or vacation at their own expense. And it’s not just the sanctions. 42% of Russian companies have cut their revenue because people are rapidly getting poorer. And so the spiral of the economic crisis unwinds. The depth of the fall can already be estimated: a million people left, 300 thousand mobilized, 4.6 million people are idle. We do not take into account the official unemployed, since a small number of free personnel is normal for any economy. And we get at least 5.9 million lost jobs. This even exceeded the most pessimistic #Nebrechni forecasts made in March 2022: 2-3 million specialists were thrown out into the streets immediately, and up to 20 million more, taking into account related industries. But the mobilization resource is growing. All these millions of people have already been torn out of the economy and are not producing anything. I don’t want to call. @nebrexnya

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#bemposvoim Everything is classic. War with the West, but we hit our own: experts and investors. Exchange analytics has become like going to a fortune teller, and the Moscow Exchange has turned into a casino. And where it all flies, is also unclear. Not to mention the unprecedented opportunities for corruption. No sanctions do as much damage as withholding important information. The CIA and the US Treasury, if necessary, will receive the necessary data anyway, and inside the country it’s hard without them. @nebrexnya

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And gas too. Beijing has unscrewed the valve for Moscow on 11.5% discounts, and will soon press more. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak cheerfully reported that Russia had supplied 15.5 billion cubic meters of gas through the Power of Siberia pipeline. And that’s all, Novak somehow didn’t say anything about money. Everything is interesting with money. China reported payment for Russian gas at 3,980,856,658. Using the innovative scientific method “calculator”, we get $257 per thousand cubic meters. It’s not that it didn’t even come close to $2-3 thousand per thousand cubic meters, as in spring. This is 2.5 times less than $800 for gas for the EU in the first half of 2022. China buys gas from other suppliers – Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Myanmar – for $290. That is, Russia offers a discount of 11.5% to other suppliers, and a multiple discount to the lost European market. As Russia’s dependence on China grows (and there is no one else to buy hydrocarbons in such quantities), the Celestial Empire will twist its arms more and more. China has already surpassed “unfriendly” countries with their oil price ceiling. And now there is trouble with gas, and we know its size. @nebrexnya

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Unannounced monetary reform is the reason for stagnation The economy does not have good prices for us – Vedomosti writes that the head of the Ministry of Economics, at a meeting with the political leadership, “expressed concern about the stagnation of demand and low inflation illustrating this problem. Price growth since September 2022 was significantly below 3 %, at the same time, operational data from cash registers indicate a decline in demand in real terms year on year.The key task for 2023 was the restoration of demand, the main indicator of which in the current situation is inflation “Well, etc. However, the bosses have always stood on the fact that rising prices are bad (inflation is an eternal bogey of people who are constantly dissatisfied with prices, that of the authorities, always remembering the “nineties”). Now it turns out that deflation is also not good. don’t like – I don’t know what prices you need, I could say “economy” In fact, the authorities do not like low inflation so much as low demand (primarily for goods of “domestic” producers), from this point of view, the Minister of Economic Development can be understood. But low demand worries the boss not in the sense that people do not buy anything, but that “business” does not invest anything in “production” (well, except that it uses the money that the government allocates, but this is a little “not right” ). But “business” can also be understood – in the face of a slowdown in growth / falling prices, you don’t want to invest – you can’t guess the demand. Rising prices in a particular industry is the surest marker that indicates unsatisfied demand and the opportunity to make money. And if prices slow down, then “business” thinks differently – I’ll postpone investments and wait for a deficit – where there will be a queue for “goods” – that’s where, most likely, there will be earnings. People, looking at the price tags, also act rationally – in a situation where goods have ceased to rise in price rapidly (and something has fallen in price), it does not make much sense to rush for big purchases – you can be patient, and suddenly tomorrow or the day after tomorrow it will be even cheaper (especially in a situation when people are not sure about their income, this is called the savings model of behavior, when the ability to save money “for tomorrow” turns out to be more important than the ability to spend money “today”) These are the basics of macroeconomics. But why did such a situation arise at all? I would venture to explain it this way. Everything that is happening on the market now is a derivative of the decisions of the economic and financial authorities at the end of February 2022. In fact, it was a “monetary reform” that made the “ruble” another currency. With the same “external characteristics” – in terms of content, the ruble has become “different”. What happened? Over the past 30 years, people in the Russian Federation have operated not so much with the “ruble” as with the pair “ruble / dollar”, and the “cash dollar” within the Russian economy has played approximately the same role that Treasuries, federal government bonds, play in the US economy . A “protective” highly liquid asset with a number of valuable properties – it gradually grows in price, it can be used as a means of payment (outside the Russian Federation), it can be easily converted. The dynamics of the ruble exchange rate against the dollar was not only market-oriented, but also understandable, which made the dollar an affordable savings instrument. “A dollar is a dollar in Africa too” In the spring of 2022, the Russian authorities “broke” this pair by artificially setting the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar – and thereby forcing people to think not about expenses, but about savings. The “dollar part” of people’s savings has depreciated sharply – forcing the people to take up the alternative accumulation of rubles. What is happening is very similar to the situation that developed in the economy of the USSR after the confiscation monetary reform of 1947 – prices rose sharply, incomes “stopped” – and the volume of consumer goods remaining on the market turned out to be impossible to sell. And now it’s the same thing, only the credit has also “shrank” – therefore, we are seeing a gradual decline in prices (in contrast to the “discrete” Stalinist one) – which should also smoothly lead us from overstocking to a deficit.

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The patriotic public was so afraid of the fifth column in the form of the Russian intelligentsia and officials that no one paid attention to the weakest link in the Russian elites. For big business. Call them oligarchs “the hand does not rise”, because they have no critical influence on the government. However, the danger of destructive behavior on their part should not be underestimated. Many of them have long been dependent on the West. But until the conflict reached such a hot stage, accounts abroad and securities did not seem like a dangerous burden for Russian business. Today the collective West has gone on the offensive. And not only Abramovich is participating in peace negotiations with absolutely non-subjective representatives of non-subjective Ukraine. He must be offended for the sake of his former homeland to lose a football club and a yacht. But there are a lot of such offended yachts. Judging by the latest news, the West is actively tightening the screws on our big business. And he does this not in general against Russians, but against specific characters. To all appearances, the West was unable to find effective economic levers of pressure on Oleg Deripaska. And the West has moved to a deeper level. An FBI officer who allegedly received a $25,000 bribe from Deripaska has been prosecuted. Most likely, knowing the methods of Deripaska, there was no one-time bribe. He had an FBI agent on his payroll. And with one of the trenches he got caught. Now he is working on it. His colleagues seek recognition from him. And they will definitely succeed. And they will move from real guilt to the slander they need. Because the real guilt is the boring and uninteresting for the public work of an FBI officer for the business of a foreign state. But now this employee will begin to testify personally against Deripaska. And everything will be there. Maybe even reach Islamic terrorism. Of course, in this situation, Deripaska is no longer a national businessman whose interests coincide with those of the country. He is quite a fifth column. And thus the Anglo-Saxons will come for anyone who gave up, held assets abroad and bought hundred-meter yachts there. What Deripaska will provide in return – we will soon see on the news. We have already seen how Oleg Tinkov instantly changed his color, ceased to be a Russian banker and began to actively oppose the policy of the Russian Federation. This is a very naive position to defend. He is required to be extradited in a criminal case to the United States from England. No chance of ever being extradited to the US. @nebrexnya

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#NebrehnyaRecognized Yuri Maslov, the head of the broker Otkritie Investments, decided to merge. Today it became known about his impending resignation. It will take place after the completion of the takeover transaction by VTB Bank. As #Nebrekhnya found out, Maslov will not be thrown out into the street at all. It is planned to appoint him as an adviser in the updated structure. In career terms, this is a failure – in fact, an honorary pension. And this despite the fact that Maslov began his career in 2008 – only 15 years ago. Interestingly, before heading Otkritie Investments, Maslov headed VTB Capital Broker for three years. Simply put, he is “his own” for both VTB and Otkritie. And to fall out of such a boat, you need to try very hard. Or maybe it’s an echo of unemployment? There were two large banks, now there is only one – but those who want to steer a structure with huge financial flows have not diminished. In addition, Maslov spent almost two years at Otkritie under the leadership of Mikhail Zadornov, who ate a trillion-dollar hole in the budget. It is implausible to work there and not get dirty in schematics. So even VTB did not need such a specialist. As certainly the rest of the Discovery team. Something tells #Nebrekhne that the scandals around the Kostin-Zadornov-Nabiullina deal are just beginning. @nebrexnya

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“Friedman is not just a thief – he is a rare thief,” businessman Sergei Polonsky shocked the public with these words. He accused the founder of Alfa Group of fraud and extortion. According to Polonsky, in 2009 he had a loan in the amount of $225 million at Credit Suisse (the same pre-bankrupt “purse” of Russian oligarchs). Friedman, being the underwriter of Credit Suisse, bought the loan from the Swiss. According to Polonsky, “for 24 cents.” Then he blocked all accounts and began to demand $108 million. It looks like a classic scheme for taking assets. Exactly the same scheme was used, for example, by BBR Bank and Dmitry Gorodovich against Megapolis Development. Gorodovich threatens to testify against Fridman in a London court. He, probably, is very touched and even takes away money from the oligarch for a cleaning lady. Again. Another thing is interesting. The press service of Alfa-Bank began to shout that everything said was lies, gossip and slander, and the redemption of bad debts was “a common market practice.” And he even promises to sue Polonsky for “morbid fantasies of a crazy person.” He does not specify, however, in what, but hardly in London. And now, attention, a question. Why did Alpha start performing at all? Friedman left all positions and now has nothing to do with the leadership of Alfa-Bank. Doesn’t it have? @nebrexnya

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